The impending risk of democratic backsliding Authors: Nour El Houda Mahjoub Morgane Giraud A declining Indonesian democracy since 2019 Indonesia has been a democracy for over 25 years since the fall of President Suharto’s dictatorship in 1998. However, nearing the end of current president Joko Widodo’s (“Jokowi”) second term in office, anti-democratic policies and actions have been recurrent. Initially, Jokowi was seen as a hope for Indonesian democracy, having had no ties to the previous dictatorship and coming from a modest and honest background. Yet, starting in 2019, his policies shifted towards an increasing concentration of power in the hands of himself and elites. At the start of his second term, he dismantled the Corruption Eradication Commission, created the Job Creation Law putting workers and the environment at risk, and most recently was involved in the constitutional exemption of his son, Gibran, to run for vice presidency without meeting the minimum age requirement. The 2024 presidential elections With the Indonesian presidential elections this February, the possibility of democratic backsliding is even more imminent. There are three presidential candidates: Anies Rasyid Baswedan and Muhaimin Iskandar, Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka, and Ganjar Pranowo and Mahfud MD. All three have been subject to controversy and criticism. Anies has been involved in muslim-chinese controversies in his running for governor of Jakarta against Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (“Ahok”), who was later accused of blasphemy and imprisoned for two years. Ganjar was initially a crowd favourite, until he called for the ban of the Israel’s U-20 team in 2023 World Cup, a decision that led to Indonesia losing hosting rights and causing resentment among Indonesians. Prabowo is by far the most controversial figure in this election. Accused of human rights abuses, involved in the disappearance of pro-democracy activists, and involved in the East-Timor genocide, Prabowo was a high-ranking military general under Suharto’s bloody regime, as well as his son in law. He has still never been held accountable for his actions. Adding to the controversy, Prabowo is now running for president with Jokowi’s son, Gibran. This poses two issues. Firstly, constitutional law has been modified to allow him to run, as Jokowi’s brother-in-law is Chief Justice. Secondly, some scholars have accused Jokowi of attempting to build a political dynasty by placing his son in the election to ensure a continuation of his family’s rule over Indonesia. Prabowo now leads the poll predictions as of February 15th, the day after the election, with over 55% of the votes and has already declared his victory. Military leaders coming to power This poses major threats to democracy and human rights in Indonesia. Drawing on previous cases, we can point to recurring symptoms of democratic backsliding under the rule of military leaders. Usually, the decline of liberal rights such as freedom of speech, press and association, impair the ability of the political opposition to challenge and hold the government accountable, which is a key feature of a democracy. We have seen Prabowo take advantage of this previously, as his past human rights abuses and silencing of pro-democracy activists show. Even though he was elected democratically, anti-democratic processes such as the modification of the constitution to let Gibran be vice-president led to his duo even being able to run, which may suggest that his presidential term will not be fully faithful to democratic processes, increasing the risks of democratic regression. Impacts on women and children It is also crucial to consider the impacts of Prabowo’s return to a position on power on women and children. He was allegedly associated with leading the mass rape and murder of at least 160 Chinese-Indonesian women and girls. Many of them were reportedly burned to death after they had been sexually assaulted. He was also allegedly behind the rape and murder of female student activists in 1998, as part of a campaign to intimidate and silence the opposition. Although he denies such allegations, the families of the victims demand justice, and express shock and concern over Prabowo’s potential election victory. A democratic ascent to power due to voter’s lack of information What could come as a surprise to many is Prabowo’s democratic ascend to power, raising questions as to why and how leaders of this kind would be chosen by individuals living under a democratic regime. The answer lies in the younger generation’s lack of knowledge on Prabowo’s past. 52% of eligible voters are under 40 years old and most do not remember the atrocities committed under Suharto’s regime, and certainly not Prabowo’s involvement. Subianto has completely reinvented his image, from a bloody military general to a “cuddly grandpa”, appealing to younger generations through dancing and innocent, inclusive behaviour. Sources:
https://en.tempo.co/read/1795588/jokowi-has-damaged-many-democratic-instruments https://www.smh.com.au/world/jakarta-governor-contender-anies-baswedan-under-fire-for-meeting-islamic-hardliners-20170103-gtlasx.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/christian-governor-jakarta-blasphemy-muslims-indonesia-governor-basuki-ahok-tjahaja-purnama-a7725371.html https://eastasiaforum.org/2023/04/09/a-yellow-card-for-indonesias-presidential-frontrunner/ https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/2045627/general-prabowo-suharto-indonesie-election https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/2/14/indonesia-election-results-live-quick-counts-start-for-jokowi-successor https://www.commondreams.org/news/prabowosubianto#:~:text=Kopassus%20troops%20under%20Prabowo's%20command,other%20Indonesians%20of%20Chinese%20origin. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/16/he-must-surrender-mothers-fight-for-justice-amid-indonesian-regime-change https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2024/02/17/families-of-tortured-activists-shocked-at-prabowos-win
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March 2024
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